​Northern Properties Stewardship Plan (NPSP)

THK Associates completed a Highest and Best Use Market Analysis for the Thornton Northern Properties Stewardship Plan. This Market Analysis aimed to estimate the land use potentials for the approximate 19,000 acres the City of Thornton acquired. The study identifies anticipated future market demand in key sub-markets, which included residential, office, industrial, retail, and hotel uses.

THK Associates used the Market Analysis to determine the annual average absorption rates through 2031 for each sub-market identified above. This exercise aimed to create land use absorption forecast models to identify where future development may occur in the next 16 years. To complete this exercise, THK developed a spreadsheet to determine how much future land area (acres) would be needed to reflect the projections from the Market Analysis.

The Land Use Absorption study started with creating a current land use model to depict land uses as they occur today. The Current Land Use Plan was developed using jurisdictional GIS data and recent aerial imagery to fill in gaps. THK used this as a baseline model to identify and place the future projected land uses. The land use placement parameters used a qualitative approach that was guided by standard planning practices that used the following to help determine future land use placement:

• Jurisdictional Comprehensive Plans
• Adjacent to existing infrastructure such as major & minor thoroughfares (I-25 Corridor)
• Located near existing and proposed intersections of thoroughfares
• Adjacent to existing compatible land uses and development
• Place higher intensity uses in terms of traffic generation near existing town cores
• Place a medium to lower residential developments in more rural, less intense areas

Disclaimer:  The placement of these future land use typologies was guided by standard planning practices and does not reflect what may occur in the future as properties develop.
 
Further verification of the Land Use Absorption models will occur in future Regional Working Group meetings that will include planners from the jurisdictions within the project study area.
 
The study concluded that most of Thornton’s land holdings would not likely be impacted by major future development trends in the next sixteen (16) years. While development occurs, the majority is located to the west, along the I-25 corridor, and far less to the east in the study area.

Highest and Best Use Market Analysis for the Thornton Northern Properties Stewardship Plan

Draft Land Use Study Maps and Absorption Forecast